Dijon v Amiens – Stade Gaston Gérard at 19:00
Since Dijon was promoted to Ligue 1 in 2016, they’ve only won two league games when playing away. But when playing at the Stade Gaston Gérard they’re a different team.
The Mustards’ record over the last 10 games reads W7-D2-L1 – with the narrow loss coming against league leaders PSG. It’s hard to work out why their home form is so good, but whatever coach Olivier Dall’Oglio is doing, it’s certainly working.
The hosts have failed to score less than twice just the once at the Stade Gaston Gerard since late October and on five occasions have netted at least three goals in a game.
Dijon’s key man is arguably center-forward Julio Tavares. The Cape Verdean international has scored as many goals as Kylian Mbappe (nine) this season and has stepped up to the plate since striker Loïs Diony joined St Etienne for just under £9 million in the summer.
He holds up play but will also get into the box to finish things off himself. Just two of his goals have come away from home this season and Dijon will need him to perform if they are to secure victory against Amiens on Saturday.
Amiens in trouble
Amiens enjoyed the dizzy heights of seventh in late November but results have since dropped off. They are now just two points clear of the automatic relegation zone and one point clear of the relegation play-off spot.
The Ligue 1 newcomers gained just eight points from their last possible 39, and their torrid away form is causing them problems.
Amiens did win their last road trip to Nantes, but before then they’d lost five consecutive games when playing away from Stade de la Licorne. They’ve only conceded 17 goals from 14 away games but have scored a derisory eight, making them the second-lowest scoring away team in the division.
The betting angle
Dijon’s home form is remarkable and, although it might be unexplainable, is hard to ignore.
The Mustards are still not safe from relegation themselves and still need to pick up as many points as possible between now and the end of the season – especially as they’ve only got five home games left.
Amiens is in real trouble at the bottom of the table and despite winning their last away game, are generally really poor on their travels so I’m happy to oppose them at a fair price.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Dijon -0.50 at 1.870
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