Atletico Madrid v Eibar – Wanda Metropolitano at 12:00 live at Eleven Sports
Atletico Madrid head coach Diego Simeone was not a happy man after watching his side slide to a 2-0 defeat away at Celta Vigo before the international break. With Los Colchoneros already trailing Barcelona and Real Madrid by five points, the Argentine said, “This is a warning. Especially for me.”
The capital club held Valencia at the Mestalla in their opening La Liga encounter before overcoming Rayo Vallecano unconvincingly at the Wanda Metropolitano. However, Jan Oblak has had to be in inspirational form to keep Los Rojiblancos in both matches and major improvement is required from elsewhere.
Tipped by many to be major title challengers in 2018/19, Atletico are struggling to justify such claims. A return home should at least give Los Colchoneros the opportunity to bounce back to winning ways, particularly given the standard of their opposition in the Saturday afternoon sun.
Eibar struggling to find their best form
Eibar arrives this weekend having picked up three points from their opening three outings (W1-D0-L2). A victory in the Basque derby at home to Real Sociedad was welcome following poor opening losses against Huesca and Getafe, although Jose Luis Mendilibar remains unhappy with their performance levels.
Los Armeros have been giving up many great goalscoring chances to their opponents and averaging 1.50 Expected Goals from open play against per-match at this early stage. The visitors 28% ratio in the same metric again highlights their tame start to the season and they have to be vulnerable here.
Eibar’s record at top-half teams under Mendilibar includes 16/28 (57%) defeats. When you place it alongside Simeone’s results when welcoming bottom-half teams at Atletico (W48-D1-L1) and the result appears a foregone conclusion, as do the pre-match odds on offer.
Goals a value play
There’s little value to be garnered from the Match Odds or enough wriggle-room from the Asian Handicap market to back Atletico in their current guise with confidence so instead have a poke on Over 2.25 Goals at 1.80 this weekend.
A healthy 27 (54%) of those 50 Atletico encounters at home to bottom-half teams under Simeone have featured at least three goals, while 18 (64%) of Eibar’s away days at top-half teams from the sample above have followed suit, with 15 (54%) even paying out for Both Teams To Score backers.
Collectively, an average of only 23.5% of the above two records have seen this selection lose completely so there’s decent mileage in the current quotes for goals this weekend.
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Over 2.25 goals at 1.769
Preview by: @MarkOHaire.